Expert Analysis: College football bowl projections, fourth edition

Mike Huguenin is the epitome of a Gamedayr. He has spent over 28 years in sports journalism, with notable stints at Yahoo! Sports/Rivals.com, NY Times, The Sporting News, and Orlando Sentinel.  On Gamedayr, Mike provides expert analysis on Heisman updates, weekly game news, bowl projections and college basketball.

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Here are the fourth bowl projections for the season.

Alabama’s surprising home loss to Texas A&M, as well as Stanford’s win over Oregon State, has led to a big shakeup in the projections.

Stanford’s win means it is likely that every Pac-12 team except Oregon is going to have at least three losses. That makes it dicey that a conference team other than Oregon finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, which is mandatory for a team to receive a BCS at-large berth. If Oregon is in the national title game – which is the case in these projections – Rose Bowl organizers likely will have to look outside the league for a team to replace the Ducks. Notre Dame, anyone? The Irish’s first bowl appearance, after the 1924 season, was in the Rose Bowl, but they haven’t played in the game since.

[Related: Heisman Trophy Watch List, Week 12]

Stanford’s win also opens the door for the ACC to receive two BCS bids for the second season in a row. If Clemson were to finish 11-1, the Tigers would seem a good bet to get a BCS slot. But a 10-2 Tigers team would be a bit dicey.

The SEC is going to get two bids, but Alabama’s loss – in addition to opening the title-game door to Kansas State and Oregon – makes it a mystery as to which two teams. The SEC champ obviously gets a guaranteed spot; the league title game almost certainly will be Alabama-Georgia. The loser of that game along with Florida (assuming it finishes 11-1, which would mean a win in the regular-season finale at Florida State), LSU (assuming it finishes 10-2) and Texas A&M (assuming it finishes 10-2) would be BCS possibilities.

[Three remaining un-beatens: Who’s headed to Miami for the BCS title game?]

A few notes about these projections: Once again, there are 35 bowls, though there have been some name changes from last season. And a bowl’s tie-in with a league doesn’t necessarily mean it will get the third- or fourth-, etc., place team from the league; instead, it means it gets the third or fourth, etc., selection from that league.

BCS MATCHUPS

Rose Bowl
Site: Pasadena, Calif.
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: 5 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BCS vs. BCS (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
Note: Rose Bowl organizers would be upset if there is a Rose Bowl without a Pac-12 team. But having the Irish would put salve on that wound.

Orange Bowl
Site: Miami
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BCS vs. BCS
Projection: Florida State vs. Louisville
Note: If the ACC champ is not in the BCS championship game, it is contractually obligated to go to the Orange Bowl. As for Louisville, no BCS bowl really wants anything to do with any Big East team.

Sugar Bowl
Site: New Orleans
Date: Jan. 2
Time/TV: 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BCS vs. BCS
Projection: Alabama vs. Clemson
Note: If the SEC champ isn’t in the national title game, it is contractually obligated to play in this contest. Clemson’s BCS hopes would be greatly strengthened by a victory over archrival South Carolina.

Fiesta Bowl
Site: Glendale, Ariz.
Date: Jan. 3
Time/TV: 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BCS vs. BCS
Projection: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Note: The Big 12 champ is contractually obligated to the Fiesta if it is not in the national title game. The bowl likely would look to another Big 12 team to fill the spot vacated by the league champ. Georgia has locked up a spot in the SEC title game and still has long-shot hopes of playing for the national title.

National championship game
Site: Miami
Date: Jan. 7
Time/TV: 8 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2
Projection: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Note: Would K-State coach Bill Snyder ride off into the sunset if he indeed takes the Wildcats to the title game? And would Ducks coach Chip Kelly head to the NFL if he indeed gets Oregon back in the title game?

THE OTHER BOWLS

New Mexico Bowl
Site: Albuquerque
Date: Dec. 15
Time/TV: 1 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Mountain West #5 vs. Pac-12 #7
Projection: Nevada vs. Arizona

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Site: Boise, Idaho
Date: Dec. 15
Time/TV: 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Mid-American No. 3 vs. Western Athletic #1
Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Utah State
Note: Projection is that WAC’s Louisiana Tech will fill an open bowl slot more geographically suitable.

Poinsettia Bowl
Site: San Diego
Date: Dec. 20
Time/TV: 8 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: BYU if bowl-eligible vs. Mountain West #2
Projection: BYU vs. San Diego State State
Note: BYU has nailed down its spot in this game. This would be a home game for San Diego State.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
Site: St. Petersburg, Fla.
Date: Dec. 21
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big East #6 vs. Conference USA
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. East Carolina
Note: Projection is Big East won’t be able to fill its slot.

New Orleans Bowl
Site: New Orleans
Date: Dec. 22
Time/TV: Noon, ESPN
Matchup: Conference USA vs. Sun Belt #1
Projection: Houston vs. Arkansas State

Las Vegas Bowl
Site: Las Vegas
Date: Dec. 22
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Mountain West #1 vs. Pac-12 #5
Projection: Boise State vs. UCLA

Hawaii Bowl
Site: Honolulu
Date: Dec. 24
Time/TV: 8 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Conference USA vs. Mountain West #4
Projection: Tulsa vs. Fresno State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Site: Detroit
Date: Dec. 26
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big Ten #8 vs. Mid-American #1
Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo
Note: Projection is Big Ten won’t be able to fill its slot.

Military Bowl
Site: Washington, D.C.
Date: Dec. 27
Time/TV: 3 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: ACC #8 vs. Army if bowl-eligible
Projection: Kent State vs. San Jose State
Note: Army can’t become bowl-eligible, and the projection is the ACC won’t be able to fill its slot.

Belk Bowl
Site: Charlotte, N.C.
Date: Dec. 27
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
Projection: Duke vs. Cincinnati

Holiday Bowl
Site: San Diego
Date: Dec. 27
Time/TV: 9:45 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big 12 #5 vs. Pac-12 #3
Projection: Iowa State vs. USC

Independence Bowl
Site: Shreveport, La.
Date: Dec. 28
Time/TV: 2 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: ACC #7 vs. SEC #10
Projection: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Note: Projection is that neither league will be able to fill its slot.

Russell Athletic Bowl
Site: Orlando
Date: Dec. 28
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: ACC #3 vs. Big East #2
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Note: This had been known as the Champs Sports Bowl

Texas Bowl
Site: Houston
Date: Dec. 28
Time/TV: 9 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big Ten #6 vs. Big 12 #6
Projection: Minnesota vs. TCU

Armed Forces Bowl
Site: Fort Worth, Texas
Date: Dec. 29
Time/TV: 11:45 a.m., ESPN
Matchup: Conference USA vs. Mountain West #3
Projection: SMU vs. Air Force

Pinstripe Bowl
Site: New York
Date: Dec. 29
Time/TV: 3:15 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big East #4 vs. Big 12 #7
Projection: Syracuse vs. West Virginia

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Site: San Francisco
Date: Dec. 29
Time/TV: 4 p.m., ESPN2
Matchup: Pac-12 #6 vs. Navy if bowl-eligible
Projection: Washington vs. Navy
Note: Navy has locked up its spot.

Alamo Bowl
Site: San Antonio
Date: Dec. 29
Time/TV: 6:45 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big 12 #3 vs. Pac-12 #2
Projection: Texas Tech vs. Stanford

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Site: Tempe, Ariz.
Date: Dec. 29
Time/TV: 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big Ten #5 vs. Big 12 #4
Projection: Northwestern vs. Oklahoma State
Note: This previously was known as the Insight Bowl.

Music City Bowl
Site: Nashville
Date: Dec. 31
Time/TV: Noon, ESPN
Matchup: ACC #6 vs. SEC #7
Projection: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt

Sun Bowl
Site: El Paso, Texas
Date: Dec. 31
Time/TV: 2 p.m., CBS
Matchup: ACC #4 vs. Pac-12 #4
Projection: Miami vs. Oregon State

Liberty Bowl
Site: Memphis
Date: Dec. 31
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Conference USA #1 vs. Big East #5 or SEC #8
Projection: UCF vs. Ole Miss

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Site: Atlanta
Date: Dec. 31
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
Projection: NC State vs. South Carolina

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Site: Dallas
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: Noon, ESPNU
Matchup: Big Ten #7 vs. Big 12 #8
Projection: Purdue vs. Arizona State
Note: Projection is the Big 12 won’t be able to fill its slot. This contest formerly was known as the TicketCity Bowl.

Gator Bowl
Site: Jacksonville
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: Noon, ESPN2
Matchup: Big Ten #4 vs. SEC #6
Projection: Michigan State vs. Mississippi State

Capital One Bowl
Site: Orlando
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: 1 p.m., ABC
Matchup: Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2
Projection: Michigan vs. Florida

Outback Bowl
Site: Tampa
Date: Jan. 1
Time/TV: 1 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3
Projection: Nebraska vs. LSU

Cotton Bowl
Site: Arlington, Texas
Date: Jan. 4
Time/TV: 8 p.m., Fox
Matchup: Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #4
Projection: Texas vs. Texas A&M

BBVA Compass Bowl
Site: Birmingham, Ala.
Date: Jan. 5
Time/TV: 1 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Big East #5/6 vs. SEC #9
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri
Note: Projection is Big East won’t be able to fill its slot.

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Site: Mobile, Ala.
Date: Jan. 6
Time/TV: 9 p.m., ESPN
Matchup: Mid-American #2 vs. Sun Belt #2
Projection: Ohio U. vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Three remaining un-beatens >> Who’s headed to Miami for the BCS title game?

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